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basada en marcadores de enfermedad aguda que incluye 4 variables recogidas al ingreso &#40;1 punto cada &#237;tem&#41;&#58; concentraci&#243;n de sodio &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>145<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>mEq&#47;l&#41; y urea &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>84<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>mg&#47;dl&#41; en sangre&#44; frecuencia respiratoria &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>20<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>rpm&#41; e &#237;ndice de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">shock</span> &#40;frecuencia cardiaca&#47;tensi&#243;n arterial sist&#243;lica<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a>&#46; Estas variables&#44; aplicadas en el anciano&#44; constituyen el acr&#243;nimo NaURSE &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleBold">Na</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">&#43;</span>&#44; <span class="elsevierStyleBold">U</span>rea&#44; frecuencia <span class="elsevierStyleBold">R</span>espiratoria&#44; &#205;ndice de <span class="elsevierStyleBold">S</span>hock&#44; senilidad &#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">E</span>lderly&#8722;</span>&#41;&#46; El objetivo considerado en dicho estudio fue la muerte por cualquier causa durante el ingreso&#46; La regla tuvo un &#225;rea bajo la curva <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Receiver Operating Curve</span> &#40;ROC&#41; de 0&#44;69 &#40;intervalo de confianza &#91;IC&#93; del 95&#37;&#58; 0&#44;63-0&#44;76&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El objetivo del presente trabajo fue validar dicha regla en una poblaci&#243;n nonagenaria espa&#241;ola&#46;</p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se dise&#241;&#243; un estudio retrospectivo y transversal para el que se extrajeron del registro del Hospital Universitario de Donostia &#40;San Sebasti&#225;n&#41; todas las altas del a&#241;o 2013 del Servicio de Medicina Interna de pacientes de m&#225;s de 90 a&#241;os&#46; Se analizaron 917 episodios de los 998 obtenidos&#44; debido a la p&#233;rdida de algunas de las variables cr&#237;ticas al ingreso&#46; Esto supuso una tasa de p&#233;rdidas del 8&#37;&#46; La edad media de la cohorte estudiada fue de 92&#44;5 a&#241;os &#40;desviaci&#243;n est&#225;ndar 2&#44;7&#41;&#46; La mortalidad fue del 13&#44;6&#37; y aument&#243; seg&#250;n los niveles de riesgo predichos por la regla &#40;0-4 puntos&#41;&#58; 0 puntos&#58; 15&#47;211 &#40;7&#44;1&#37;&#41;&#59; 1 punto&#58; 57&#47;492 &#40;11&#44;6&#37;&#41;&#59; 2 puntos&#58; 32&#47;172 &#40;18&#44;5&#37;&#41;&#59; 3 puntos 17&#47;37 &#40;45&#44;9&#37;&#41; y 4 puntos&#58; 4&#47;5 &#40;80&#37;&#41;&#46; Comparando los fallecidos con los supervivientes se encontraron diferencias estad&#237;sticamente significativas &#40;p<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#60;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>0&#44;005&#41; en la edad &#40;93 vs&#46; 92 a&#241;os&#41;&#44; frecuencia de demencia &#40;60 vs&#46; 30&#37;&#41;&#44; grado de dependencia &#40;&#237;ndice de Barthel&#58; 24 vs&#46; 52&#41; y enfermedad respiratoria como motivo de ingreso &#40;44 vs&#46; 25&#37;&#41;&#44; respectivamente&#46; El &#225;rea bajo la curva ROC de la regla NaURSE fue de 0&#44;65 &#40;IC 95&#37;&#58; 0&#44;56-0&#44;70&#41;&#46; El resto de los resultados se exponen en la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">tabla 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Hasta el momento existen pocos estudios que hayan analizado los factores asociados a la mortalidad intrahospitalaria de las personas en su d&#233;cima d&#233;cada de vida&#46; Factores pron&#243;sticos cl&#225;sicos como la edad&#44; la comorbilidad o la dependencia no se han demostrado asociados a la mortalidad en algunos estudios<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0055"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a>&#44; y en el caso de los marcadores de enfermedad aguda &#40;presi&#243;n arterial&#44; frecuencia cardiaca&#44; etc&#46;&#41;&#44; los resultados han sido dispares<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRefs" href="#bib0060"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">5&#44;6</span></a>&#46; As&#237;mismo&#44; algunos modelos han visto limitada su aplicabilidad pr&#225;ctica por su complejidad<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0070"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">7</span></a>&#46; Esto indica la dificultad que entra&#241;a el encontrar predictores reproducibles&#44; probablemente por la importante heterogeneidad que presentan estos pacientes tanto a nivel f&#237;sico&#44; ps&#237;quico como social&#44; por lo que para perfilar mejor los modelos de predicci&#243;n deber&#237;an identificarse subgrupos concretos de pacientes&#46;</p><p id="par0025" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">En conclusi&#243;n&#44; la aplicaci&#243;n de la regla NaURSE en una poblaci&#243;n local mayor de 90 a&#241;os&#44; confirma una modesta capacidad de predicci&#243;n de la mortalidad en sujetos ingresados&#46; 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Correspondencia
Validación externa de la regla NaURSE para predecir mortalidad intrahospitalaria en nonagenarios
Validation of the NaURSE rule for predicting in-hospital mortality in nonagenarians
N. Péreza,
Autor para correspondencia
naiara.perezfernandez@osakidetza.net

Autor para correspondencia.
, I. Urretab, M. Elolaa, P. Araneguia
a Servicio de Medicina Interna, Hospital Universitario Donostia, Donostia-San Sebastián, Guipúzcoa, España
b Servicio de Epidemiología Clínica, Hospital Universitario Donostia, Donostia-San Sebastián, Guipúzcoa, España
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basada en marcadores de enfermedad aguda que incluye 4 variables recogidas al ingreso &#40;1 punto cada &#237;tem&#41;&#58; concentraci&#243;n de sodio &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>145<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>mEq&#47;l&#41; y urea &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>84<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>mg&#47;dl&#41; en sangre&#44; frecuencia respiratoria &#40;&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>20<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>rpm&#41; e &#237;ndice de <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">shock</span> &#40;frecuencia cardiaca&#47;tensi&#243;n arterial sist&#243;lica<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>&#62;<span class="elsevierStyleHsp" style=""></span>1&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a>&#46; Estas variables&#44; aplicadas en el anciano&#44; constituyen el acr&#243;nimo NaURSE &#40;<span class="elsevierStyleBold">Na</span><span class="elsevierStyleSup">&#43;</span>&#44; <span class="elsevierStyleBold">U</span>rea&#44; frecuencia <span class="elsevierStyleBold">R</span>espiratoria&#44; &#205;ndice de <span class="elsevierStyleBold">S</span>hock&#44; senilidad &#8722;<span class="elsevierStyleItalic"><span class="elsevierStyleBold">E</span>lderly&#8722;</span>&#41;&#46; El objetivo considerado en dicho estudio fue la muerte por cualquier causa durante el ingreso&#46; La regla tuvo un &#225;rea bajo la curva <span class="elsevierStyleItalic">Receiver Operating Curve</span> &#40;ROC&#41; de 0&#44;69 &#40;intervalo de confianza &#91;IC&#93; del 95&#37;&#58; 0&#44;63-0&#44;76&#41;<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0050"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">3</span></a>&#46;</p><p id="par0010" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">El objetivo del presente trabajo fue validar dicha regla en una poblaci&#243;n nonagenaria espa&#241;ola&#46;</p><p id="par0015" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Se dise&#241;&#243; un estudio retrospectivo y transversal para el que se extrajeron del registro del Hospital Universitario de Donostia &#40;San Sebasti&#225;n&#41; 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en la edad &#40;93 vs&#46; 92 a&#241;os&#41;&#44; frecuencia de demencia &#40;60 vs&#46; 30&#37;&#41;&#44; grado de dependencia &#40;&#237;ndice de Barthel&#58; 24 vs&#46; 52&#41; y enfermedad respiratoria como motivo de ingreso &#40;44 vs&#46; 25&#37;&#41;&#44; respectivamente&#46; El &#225;rea bajo la curva ROC de la regla NaURSE fue de 0&#44;65 &#40;IC 95&#37;&#58; 0&#44;56-0&#44;70&#41;&#46; El resto de los resultados se exponen en la <a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#tbl0005">tabla 1</a>&#46;</p><elsevierMultimedia ident="tbl0005"></elsevierMultimedia><p id="par0020" class="elsevierStylePara elsevierViewall">Hasta el momento existen pocos estudios que hayan analizado los factores asociados a la mortalidad intrahospitalaria de las personas en su d&#233;cima d&#233;cada de vida&#46; Factores pron&#243;sticos cl&#225;sicos como la edad&#44; la comorbilidad o la dependencia no se han demostrado asociados a la mortalidad en algunos estudios<a class="elsevierStyleCrossRef" href="#bib0055"><span class="elsevierStyleSup">4</span></a>&#44; 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ISSN: 00142565
Idioma original: Español
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